

			use temp,clear
			set seed $seed
			capture program drop crossvalrmse
			program define crossvalrmse
				mat A=r(est)
				mat U = J(rowsof(A),1,1)
				mat c = U'*A
				mat cm = c/rowsof(A)
				mat list cm
			end
						
			capture program drop crosscalc
			program define crosscalc
				qui: crossfold xtreg repression  i.year  loggdp lpopl, fe k(10)
				crossvalrmse
				mat cm2W=cm
				qui: crossfold xtreg repression  coldwar  loggdp lpopl, fe k(10)
				crossvalrmse
				mat cmFE=cm
				qui: crossfold xtreg repression  coldwar  loggdp lpopl, re k(10)
				crossvalrmse
				mat cmRE=cm
			end
	
			simulate rmse2W =cm2W[1,1] rmseFE =cmFE[1,1] rmseRE =cmRE[1,1], rep(1000):crosscalc
			gen med=.
			gen lo=.
			gen hi=.
			gen n=_n
			centile rmse2W, centile(2.5 50 97.5)
			replace lo = r(c_1) if n==1
			replace med = r(c_2) if n==1
			replace hi = r(c_3) if n==1
			centile rmseFE, centile(2.5 50 97.5)
			replace lo = r(c_1) if n==2
			replace med = r(c_2) if n==2
			replace hi = r(c_3) if n==2
			centile rmseRE, centile(2.5 50 97.5)
			replace lo = r(c_1) if n==3
			replace med = r(c_2) if n==3
			replace hi = r(c_3) if n==3
			twoway (rspike lo hi n if n<=3)  (scatter med n if n<=3, xscale(range(0.8 3.2)) ///
			xlab(1 "2-way FE" 2 "FE + Cold war" 3 "RE + Cold war") legend(off) ytitle(RMSE) ///
			xtitle(Estimator) ylab(.85(.02).95))
